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LIULIAN CHAIN MANUFACTURING

As the cost advantage is lost, the technological advantage replaces the cost advantage in a timely manner and takes the leading position.

The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period will be a crucial strategic opportunity for China's fastener industry to transition from large to strong. During this period, China will move from the mid-stage to the late stage of industrialization. The significant characteristics are: cost advantages will gradually be challenged, technological advantages have enormous potential, the marginal benefits of R&D and technological investment will increase, and capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries will face rapid development opportunities. As cost advantages are lost, technological advantages will timely replace cost advantages and take the leading position. Basic parts, such as fasteners, are not only the foundational industry of China's equipment manufacturing industry but also an important foundation for various fields of national economic construction. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, while maintaining some cost advantages, the industry must rely on technological progress, quality improvement, and new advantages such as product cost-effectiveness to achieve sustainable development. It is estimated that the total industry output will reach 7.5 to 8 million tons by the end of 2015. Under the general situation of expanding exports, export products will show a fluctuating growth trend. The average annual export growth rate is expected to be 8% to 10% during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, and the total export value of the entire industry will reach 30 billion yuan by 2015. The domestic market will continue to maintain a good growth trend in fields such as automobiles, agricultural machinery, high-speed rail, metallurgy, power, construction machinery, and basic construction, which will bring broad market space for the growth of fastener demand. ① Automobiles: It is estimated that by the end of 2015, China's automobile production and sales will both exceed 23 million vehicles. According to statistics, a light vehicle or passenger car requires about 500 specifications of fasteners, weighing approximately 50 kg and totaling around 4000 pieces; while a medium or heavy commercial vehicle requires about 7500 fasteners, weighing 90 kg. If calculated at 70 kg per vehicle, the annual demand for automotive fasteners will exceed 1.5 million tons. ② Wind power: The domestic market urgently needs megawatt-level wind turbines. The national plan is to reach a newly installed capacity of 70 million KW by 2015 and maintain a new installation speed of no less than 14 million KW per year. The demand for high-strength fasteners for wind turbines is calculated at 400 kg per KW, requiring more than 500,000 tons of high-strength fasteners annually. ③ Nuclear power: According to the national medium and long-term plan, by 2020, China will start construction on more than 40 million-KW nuclear power units, and the total nuclear power scale will be equivalent to that of 20 Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plants. The annual demand for high-strength nuclear power-specific fasteners above grade 8.8, special material fasteners, and welded rivet products will exceed 80,000 to 100,000 tons. ④ Agricultural machinery: During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the total output value of tractors, rice transplanters, harvesters, and other agricultural machinery products will reach 250 billion yuan, and the estimated annual demand for various standard parts and special-shaped fasteners will exceed 150,000 tons, with an output value of about 2 billion yuan. ⑤ Construction machinery: During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the social stock of loaders, excavators, road rollers, and other construction machinery products will reach 6 million units, with annual sales of around 50,000 units. The estimated annual demand for high-strength fasteners will be 20,000 to 30,000 tons. ⑥ High-speed rail: During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the track mileage of high-speed railways, passenger-dedicated lines, and intercity rail transit will rapidly increase. The estimated annual infrastructure investment will reach 300 to 400 billion yuan, and the annual demand for high-speed rail fasteners will be nearly 300,000 tons.

2022-12-26 11:06

　　The 12th Five-Year Plan period will be a crucial strategic opportunity for China's fastener industry to transition from large-scale to strength. During this period, China will move from the mid-stage to the later stage of industrialization. The significant characteristics of this transition are: cost advantages will gradually be challenged, the potential for technological advantages is enormous, the marginal benefits of R&D and technology investment will increase, and capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries will face rapid development opportunities. As cost advantages are lost, technological advantages will timely replace cost advantages and take a leading position.

 

　　Basic parts, such as fasteners, are not only a foundational industry for China's equipment manufacturing industry, but also an important foundation for various fields of national economic construction. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, while maintaining some cost advantages, the industry must rely on technological progress, quality improvement, and new advantages such as product cost-effectiveness to achieve sustainable development. It is estimated that the total industry output will reach 7.5 to 8 million tons by the end of 2015. Under the overall situation of expanding exports, the growth of export products will show a fluctuating trend, with an estimated average annual export growth rate of 8% to 10% during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, and total industry exports reaching 30 billion yuan by 2015.

 

　　The domestic market will continue to maintain a good growth trend in fields such as automobiles, agricultural machinery, high-speed rail, metallurgy, electric power, engineering machinery, and basic construction, which will bring vast market space for the growth of fastener demand.

 

　　① Automobiles: By the end of 2015, China's automobile production and sales volume are expected to exceed 23 million vehicles. Statistics show that a light vehicle or passenger car requires about 500 specifications, 50 kg, and approximately 4000 fasteners; while a medium or heavy-duty commercial vehicle requires about 7500 fasteners, weighing 90 kg. If we calculate 70 kg per vehicle, the annual demand for automotive fasteners will be over 1.5 million tons.

 

　　② Wind Power: The domestic market has an urgent need for megawatt-level wind turbines. The national plan is to reach a newly installed capacity of 70 million KW by 2015, maintaining an annual increase of no less than 14 million KW. The demand for high-strength fasteners for wind turbines is calculated at 400 kg per KW, requiring more than 500,000 tons of high-strength fasteners annually for wind power.

 

　　③ Nuclear Power: According to the national medium- and long-term plan, by 2020, China will start construction on more than 40 million-KW nuclear power units, and the total nuclear power scale will be equivalent to that of 20 Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plants. The annual demand for grade 8.8 and above high-strength nuclear power dedicated fasteners, special material fasteners, and welded rivet products will exceed 80,000 to 100,000 tons.

 

　　④ Agricultural Machinery: During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the total output value of tractors, rice transplanters, harvesters, and other agricultural machinery products will reach 250 billion yuan. The estimated annual demand for various standard parts and special-shaped fasteners will exceed 150,000 tons, with an output value of approximately 2 billion yuan.

 

　　⑤ Engineering Machinery: During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the total social stock of loaders, excavators, road rollers, and other engineering machinery products will reach 6 million units, with annual sales around 50,000 units. The estimated annual demand for high-strength fasteners is 20,000 to 30,000 tons.

 

　　⑥ High-speed Rail: During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the laying of high-speed railways, passenger-dedicated lines, and intercity rail transit will rapidly increase. The estimated annual infrastructure investment will reach 300 to 400 billion yuan, with an annual demand for high-speed rail fasteners of nearly 300,000 tons.

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